Monday, July 23, 2007


HGB Area

 

Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)

Maximum 8-hr Ozone (ppb)

AQF F1

119 C619

-

Statistical Model

114 (116)

-

Human Forecast

120

-

Acutal (Observed)

120 C558

-

Model Forecast Updated on 7/23/2007 5:50:02 AM. Previous Forecast in Parenthesis.

 

DISCUSSION

Today's we are likely to have a higher ozone than yesterday - the weather pattern is similar with NE wind.
The difference, though, is wind is lighter and sky is less cloudy. Of course, the major unknown is still
cloud. From satellite, we don't have much cloud at 8-9 CDT except for a N-S slice above mid city. Another
mjor uncertainty will be seabreeze - the forecasted wind is quite similar to yesterday and yesterday we don't
have seabreez at all. But forecast is not quite right on wind yesterday, the actual N/NE wind is stronger
than forecasted. So if the wind weakens further in the afternoon, the chance that we have an exceedance will
increase further.

Yesterday's weather was high-ozone prone and model predicted a almost exceedance day. However, the city was
mostly cloudy in majority time of the day - only cleared up in the afternoon. Also the wind was stronger than
forecasted so we lucked out to have only moderate ozone. The high 76 ppb was in the afternoon at Baytown.

7/23/2007 9:56:23 AM