Sunday, July 01, 2007


HGB Area

 

Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)

Maximum 8-hr Ozone (ppb)

AQF F1

70 C557

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Statistical Model

54.8

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Human Forecast

46

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Acutal (Observed)

51 C617

-

 

DISCUSSION

More cloud and likely more rain today than yesterday. Wind pattern is similar, just slightly stronger. Ozone
at Galveston is around 20 ppb. So today's ozone is likely similar to yesterday. High in the 40s, and max
still locates around Conroe/Kingwood.

Again, yesterday's cloud and rain are more than expected, resulting stat_model's overprediction. Stat model
does not use rain or PoP as input because it does not quite improve the forecasting. It is because rain day
is rare compared to dry day in 04'-06' summer and model is trained with data in the period. Therefore it
tends to overpredict in this year's rainier weather.

Same weather will likely to persist in the next few days. Ozone high should be in the 40s and 50s.

From NWS

This morning...there is less shower development offshore versus 24 hours ago...but do not think this will
result in less rain coverage inland today. precipitable water values (per gps met data) are right around 2
inches which is slightly higher than we had yesterday at this time. expect shower/thunderstorm coverage to
increase off the coast before sunrise with some of this activity working its way inland. anticipate
convection to continue to develop and spread inland this morning and this afternoon...similar to what we saw
yesterday. will keep rain chances high today as models indicate >2 inch precipitable water values surging
into the area from the gulf. storm motions should be fast enough to keep the risk of flash flooding on the
low side...but will retain the mention of the possibility locally heavy rainfall in the zones due to the >2
inch pws. we should see activity taper down this evening with the loss of heating...but will keep chance pops
in the forecast overnight due to the high precipitable water airmass. deep tropical moisture is expected to
linger across the area through at least the middle of the upcoming week. in fact...available model mos
guidance is indicating similar high pops for today...

7/1/2007 9:27:52 AM