Saturday, June 30, 2007


HGB Area

 

Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)

Maximum 8-hr Ozone (ppb)

AQF F1

80 C557

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Statistical Model

64.3

-

Human Forecast

59

-

Acutal (Observed)

45 C555

-

 

DISCUSSION

Same weather pattern continues, with almost the same wind and cloud. So the stat model gives similar
forecast like yesterday. Ozone at Galveston is low, showing no long-range transport. However, rain
chance is high in the weather discussion, and higher than indicated in the PFM. Therefore, ozone is
likely to be lower than what stat model forecasted if rain materializes. Max ozone should occur at
Conroe/Humble like yesterday.

Yesterday's rain was largely missed in the original forecast, therefore forecast overshoot. Radar
showed rain across the region.

From NWS
Showers are already beginning to pop up off the texas and louisiana coasts again this morning as a
western gulf of mexico upper low drifts slowly northward. some of the activity is moving inland...even
farther north than what we saw yesterday at this time. latest available gps met precipitable water data
shows values aoa 1.80 inches across almost all of southeast texas. model soundings indicate a very
moist and unstable airmass in place today...and this will support the high rain chances already in the
forecast. activity should quiet down this evening and overnight with coastal shower development
expected again during the overnight hours. deep moisture plume across the central gulf of mexico with
a southward tap all the way down into the tropical pacific south of guatemala and honduras is
expected to drift westward over the next 24 hours and should stream into southeast texas tomorrow
through monday. this deep tropical moisture feed will raise our precipitable water values to >2 inches.
with an unstable airmass remaining in place...better rain chances can be expected sunday and
monday.

6/30/2007 10:35:36 AM