Friday, June 29, 2007


HGB Area

 

Maximum 1-hr Ozone (ppb)

Maximum 8-hr Ozone (ppb)

AQF F1

56 C78

-

Statistical Model

63.9

-

Human Forecast

68

-

Acutal (Observed)

54 C78

-

 

DISCUSSION

Wind/cloud trends continue with slightly weaker wind and less cloud,
which translate into higher ozone. Background ozone at Galveston
decreased slighltly from yesterday morning, to around 30 ppb. Max
ozone should remain Aldine/Humble/Conroe direction. Though the spot is
more likely to be the same as previous two days (Conroe), weaker wind
may place the max spot closer to the city.

From NWS
Western Gulf Of Mexico upper low continues to make slow progress westward
this morning. This system is helping to generate some showers off the
texas and louisiana coasts. Slowly increasing precipitable water values
are evident per gps met data. These values (currently ranging from 1.50
to 1.70 inches central and east to around 1.80 inches in the matagorda
bay area) will be on the rise over the next several days. Model trends
have been consistent in showing gradually increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms over the weekend as deep tropical moisture is tapped
northward out of the southern gulf of mexico waters. Precipitable water
values are expected to rise to around or above 2 inches...and this may
allow for the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall to develop
(will mention this in our morning hazardous weather outlook). Although
weak upper level ridging attempts to build into our area from the east
early next week...Enough moisture and instability will be present for
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. For temperatures...will make
very few changes to the previous forecast package which calls for highs
mainly in the upper 80s through monday (a little below normal due to
the expected cloud cover and rains).

6/29/2007 8:48:03 AM